Estudios de escenarios futuros del diagnóstico de enfermedades laborales y sus implicaciones en el sistema de riesgo profesionales.

The General System of Professional Risk GSPR in Colombia has as one of its principal objetives, the diagnostic, prevention and handling of the professional illnes. This process however due to the structural characteristic of the integral social security system, is a generator of confl icts because it converges series of general and private interests, which breaks out into a lot of tension between the actors of the same, with forces of a different magnitude which conducts in saving its leven of complexity and difficulty.

For the reasons above explained, the professional illness in Colombia has one of the lowest indexes of incidence compared to many other countries, due to the fact that it affects the worker and the companies to whom they belong.

In spite of the fact that the National Government, through the Ministry of Social Protection has made efforts as to improve the diagnostic process of the professional illness, they did not succeed in a signifi cant change.

The prospective research developed in this investigation, evaluated the relations between the variables involved and the group of actors through the prospective method of Godet, as to generate alternative scenerios of the future, which permits the options which can be considered introducing changes to the actual conditions of the sistem GSPR, in such way that it would be possible to reach the attractor scenery derived of the SMIC application in which is obtained an improvement of the diagnostic of the professional disease and from which privention programs con be started in accordance with the magnitude of the problem in Colombia. The above facts will certainly grow out into enormouns benefi ts for the workers as well as for the companies and reduce the chain of procedures which are used upto now to achieve these results, because it are exactly these procedures of diagnostics and handling which results in late defi nitions and fi nally end up legal instances which lead to the juditialization of the system, as is happening now in the General Social Health Security Sistem.