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Introdução: a espasticidade destaca-se como um dos sinais clínicos positivos mais significativos da síndrome do neurônio motor superior, devido à sua fisiopatologia complexa, e constitui uma característica clínica de grande impacto no campo da neurorreabilitação. Portanto, nosso objetivo foi determinar a prevalência, início, evolução e predição da espasticidade após o acidente vascular cerebral. Materiais e métodos: foi utilizado um desenho correlacional longitudinal. Foram avaliados 136 pacientes: 10 dias (T1), 3 meses (T2) e 12 meses (T3) pós-avc. A avaliação incluiu dados sociodemográficos e clínicos (T1) e o tônus ​​muscular (T1, T2 e T3) foi medido por meio da Escala Modificada de Ashworth. Resultados: a prevalência no cotovelo foi de 37,5% em T1 e 57,4% em T2 e T3. Entre os pacientes com prejuízo motor, o início da espasticidade ocorreu em T1 em 44,7% deles, entre T1 e T2 em 23,7% e entre T2 e T3 em 0,9% dos pacientes. A autoclassificação étnica, o tipo, a área, a extensão do avc e o número de sessões predisseram significativamente as anormalidades do tônus ​​muscular em pelo menos duas ocasiões. Conclusões: o início da espasticidade ocorre durante os primeiros 10 dias após o acidente vascular cerebral. Mais variáveis ​​clínicas do que sociodemográficas previram a espasticidade.

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