Risco soberano e efeitos de repercussão da política monetária dos EUA

DOI:  https://doi.org/10.12804/revistas.urosario.edu.co/economia/a.16291

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Publicado: ago 12, 2026
Edição: v. 29 n. 01 (2026)
Seção Artigos


Palavras-chave: choque da política monetária dos eua risco soberano diferencial de rendimentos dos títulos do Estado modelo de autorregressão vetorial de painel abordagem da variável exógena

Conteúdo do artigo principal

Autores

Willis Ruiz Marín
University of York

Resumo

Este artigo analisa a forma como os choques da política monetária dos eua afetam o risco soberano e as condições macroeconómicas nos países da América Latina. O aperto monetário nos eua aumenta os spreads das taxas de rendibilidade das obrigações soberanas e reduz o valor de mercado das obrigações do Estado. Além disso, eleva as taxas de juro ativas e contrai o crédito bancário concedido ao setor empresarial, levando a uma diminuição da produção industrial. A análise empírica recorre a regressões de painel e a um modelo de autoregressão vetorial de painel (pvar) com um instrumento externo, incorporando a medida ortogonalizada da surpresa da política monetária dos eua (mps^┴) como variável exógena. Os resultados da regressão de painel não fornecem evidências estatisticamente significativas de que a política monetária restritiva dos eua aumente o risco soberano ou afete negativamente as condições macroeconómicas e financeiras na América Latina. Em contrapartida, as estimativas do pvar indicam que os choques da política monetária restritiva dos eua aumentam o risco soberano e os custos de financiamento, ao mesmo tempo que enfraquecem o crédito e a atividade económica real, fornecendo evidências consistentes com o mecanismo de transmissão proposto.

Como Citar
Ruiz Marín, W. (2026). Risco soberano e efeitos de repercussão da política monetária dos EUA. Revista De Economía Del Rosario, 29(01), 1–40. https://doi.org/10.12804/revistas.urosario.edu.co/economia/a.16291
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