Main Article Content

Authors

This paper examines whether state ownership in the oil sector conditions the resource–finance nexus. Using a panel of 90 countries from 1973 to 2017 and estimating dynamic models with the system GMM estimator, we analyze how oil abundance interacts with the presence of a national oil company (NOC) to shape financial development. We provide a new explanation for the adoption of interest rate controls (IRC), showing that fiscal dependence on oil revenues, when coupled with NOC, is systematically associated with financial repression. A mediation analysis reveals an indirect channel in which IRC stimulates credit growth in the short run but wea kens banking depth over time. These findings build on the classic insights of McKinnon and Shaw, as well as on more recent work by Reinhart, while offering a novel mechanism that endogenizes governments’ decisions to repress finance.

Pérez Becerra, R. (2026). Oil Abundance, National Oil Companies, and Financial Repression. Revista Economía Del Rosario, 28(1). https://doi.org/10.12804/revistas.urosario.edu.co/economia/a.15770

Abiad, A., Detragiache, E., & Tressel, T. (2009). A new database of financial reforms. IMF Staff Papers, 57(2), 281–302. https://doi.org/10.1057/imfsp.2009.23

Ahmadov, A. K. (2013). Oil, democracy, and context: A meta-analysis. Comparative Political Studies, 47(9), 1238–1267. https://doi.org/10.1177/0010414013495358

Arellano, M., & Bond, S. (1991). Some tests of specification for panel data: Monte Carlo evidence and an application to employment equations. The Review of Economic Studies, 58(2), 277–297. https://doi.org/10.2307/2297968

Arellano, M., & Bover, O. (1995). Another look at the instrumental variable estimation of error-components models. Journal of Econometrics, 68(1), 29–51. https://doi.org/10.1016/0304-4076(94)01642-D

Baltagi, B. H., & Baltagi, B. H. (2008). Econometric analysis of panel data. Springer.

Baron, R. M., & Kenny, D. A. (1986). The moderator–mediator variable distinction in social psychological research: Conceptual, strategic, and statistical considerations. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 51(6), 1173–1182. https://doi.org/10.1037/0022-3514.51.6.1173

Beck, T. (2011). Finance and oil: Is there a resource curse in financial development? SSRN Electronic Journal. https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=1769803

Beck, T., & Levine, R. (2005). Legal institutions and financial development. In Handbook of new institutional economics (pp. 251-278). Springer US.

Beck, T., & Poelhekke, S. (2023). Follow the money: Does the financial sector intermediate natural resource windfalls? Journal of International Money and Finance, (130), 102769. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jimonfin.2022.102769

Benigno, G., & Fornaro, L. (2013). The financial resource curse. The Scandinavian Journal of Economics, 116(1), 58–86. https://doi.org/10.1111/sjoe.12047

Berglof, E., & Lehmann, A. (2009). Sustaining Russia’s growth: The role of financial reform. Journal of Comparative Economics, 37(2), 198–206. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jce.2009.01.003

Bhattacharyya, S., & Hodler, R. (2014). Do natural resource revenues hinder financial development? The role of political institutions. World Development, 57, 101–113. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.worlddev.2013.12.003

Blundell, R., & Bond, S. (1998). Initial conditions and moment restrictions in dynamic panel data models. Journal of Econometrics, 87(1), 115–143. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0304-4076(98)00009-8

Bond, S. (2002). Dynamic panel data models: A guide to micro data methods and practice. Portuguese Economic Journal, 1(2), 141–162. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10258-002-0009-9

Bornhorst, F., & Baum, C. (2007). Ipshin: Stata module to perform Im-Pesaran-Shin panel unit root test. EconPapers. https://econpapers.repec.org/software/bocbocode/s456788.htm.

Brunnschweiler, C. N., & Poelhekke, S. (2021). Pushing one’s luck: Petroleum ownership and discoveries. Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, 109, 102506. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jeem.2021.102506

Bun, M., & Kleibergen, F. (2013). Identification and inference in moments based analysis of linear dynamic panel data models. University of Amsterdam-Econometrics Discussion Paper, 07. https://pure.uva.nl/ws/files/1755601/131820_1307_1_.pdf

Cameron, A. (2005). Microeconometrics: Methods and applications. Cambridge University Press.

Cole, D. C., & Shaw, E. S. (1974). Financial deepening in economic development. The Journal of Finance, 29(4), 1345. https://doi.org/10.2307/2978421

De Mendonça, H. F., & Barcelos, V. Í. (2021). Securitization of assets and risk transfer in a large emerging market: Evidence from Brazil. Bulletin of Economic Research, 73(4), 580–605. https://doi.org/10.1111/boer.12267

Dippel, C., Ferrara, A., & Heblich, S. (2020). Causal mediation analysis in instrumental-variables regressions. The Stata Journal: Promoting Communications on Statistics and Stata, 20(3), 613–626. https://doi.org/10.1177/1536867X20953572

Edwards, J. R., & Lambert, L. S. (2007). Methods for integrating moderation and mediation: A general analytical framework using moderated path analysis. Psychological Methods, 12(1), 1–22.

Elhannani, F. E., Boussalem, A. B., & Benbouziane, M. (2016). Financial development

and the oil curse: Evidence from Algeria. Topics in Middle

Eastern and North African Economies, 18(1).

Giovannini, A. (1985). Saving and the real interest rate in LDCs. Journal of Development Economics, 18(2–3), 197–217. https://doi.org/10.1016/0304-3878(85)90054-9

Gylfason, T. (2006). Natural Resources and Economic Growth: From Dependence to Diversification (pp. 201–231). Springer-Verlag.

Gylfason, T., & Zoega, G. (2001). Natural resources and economic growth: The role of investment. SSRN Electronic Journal, 267096. https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=267096

Hausmann, R., & Rigobon, R. (2003). An alternative interpretation of the ‘resource curse’: Theory and policy implications. National Bureau of Economic Research Working Paper, 9424. https://www.nber.org/papers/w9424

Im, K. S., Pesaran, M., & Shin, Y. (2003). Testing for unit roots in heterogeneous panels. Journal of Econometrics, 115(1), 53–74. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0304-4076(03)00092-7

IMF. (2007). Guide on Resource Revenue Transparency. International Monetary Fund. https://www.imf.org/external/np/fad/trans/guide.htm

Jafarov, E., Maino, R., & Pani, M. (2019). Financial repression is knocking at the door, again. International Monetary Fund.

Kose, M. A., Ohnsorge, F. L., Reinhart, C. M., & Rogoff, K. S. (2022). The aftermath of debt surges. Annual Review of Economics, 14(1), 637–663. https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev-economics-051420-015343

Krull, J. L., & MacKinnon, D. P. (2001). Multilevel modeling of individual and group level mediated effects. Multivariate Behavioral Research, 36(2), 249–277. https://doi.org/10.1207/S15327906MBR3602_06

Kurronen, S. (2015). Financial sector in resource-dependent economies. Emerging Markets Review, 23, 208–229. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ememar.2015.04.010

Labra Lillo, R., & Torrecillas, C. (2018). Estimating dynamic panel data. a practical approach to perform long panels. Revista Colombiana de Estadística, 41(1), 31–52. https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.14352/13228

Luong, P. J., & Weinthal, E. (2010). Oil is not a curse: Ownership structure and institutions in Soviet successor states. Cambridge University Press.

Mansour, M., & Nakhle, C. (2016). Fiscal stabilization in oil and gas contracts: Evidence and implications. Oxford Institute for Energy Studies.

McKinnon, R. (1973). The value-added tax and the liberalization of foreign trade in developing economies: A comment. Journal of Economic Literature, 11(2), 520–524. https://www.jstor.org/stable/2721383

Menaldo, V. (2015). The fiscal roots of financial underdevelopment. American Journal of Political Science, 60(2), 456–471. https://doi.org/10.1111/ajps.12240

Mlachila, M., & Ouedraogo, R. (2020). Financial development curse in resource-rich countries: The role of commodity price shocks. The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, 76, 84–96. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.qref.2019.04.011

Montiel, P. J. (2011). Macroeconomics in emerging markets. Cambridge University Press.

Namazi, M., & Salehi, M. (2010). The role of inflation in financial repression: Evidence from Iran. World Applied Sciences Journal, 11(6), 653–661. https://www.idosi.org/wasj/wasj11(6)/3.pdf

Nili, M., & Rastad, M. (2007). Addressing the growth failure of the oil economies: The role of financial development. The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, 46(5), 726–740. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.qref.2006.08.007

Reinhart, C., Kirkegaard, J. F., & Sbrancia, M. B. (2011). Financial repression redux. Finance and Development, 48(1). https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/31641/

Roodman, D. (2009). How to do xtabond2: An introduction to difference and system GMM in Stata. The Stata Journal: Promoting communications on statistics and Stata, 9(1), 86–136. https://doi.org/10.1177/1536867X0900900106

Sahay, M. R., Cihak, M., N’Diaye, M. P., Barajas, M. A., Pena, M. D. A., Bi, R., Gao, M., Kyobe, M. A., Nguyen, L., & Saborowski, C. (2015). Rethinking Financial Deepening: Stability and Growth in Emerging Markets. International Monetary Fund.

Samargandi, N., Fidrmuc, J., & Ghosh, S. (2014). Financial development and economic growth in an oil-rich economy: The case of saudi arabia. Economic Modelling, 43, 267–278. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econmod.2014.07.042

Taylor, M. P., & Sarno, L. (1998). The behavior of real exchange rates during the post-bretton woods period. Journal of International Economics, 46(2), 281–312. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0022-1996(97)00054-8

Windmeijer, F. (2005). A finite sample correction for the variance of linear efficient two-step gmm estimators. Journal of Econometrics, 126(1), 25–51. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jeconom.2004.02.005

Wolf, C. O. H. (2009). The petroleum sector value chain. SSRN Electronic Journal.

Downloads

Download data is not yet available.