Impacto da abundância de petróleo e das empresas petrolíferas nacionais na repressão financeira

DOI:  https://doi.org/10.12804/revistas.urosario.edu.co/economia/a.15770

Barra lateral de artigos

PDF (English)

Publicado: abr 15, 2026
Edição: v. 28 n. 1 (2025):
Seção Artigos


Palavras-chave: repressão financeira empresas petrolíferas estatais crédito

Conteúdo do artigo principal

Autores

  Roberto Pérez Becerra
Universidad del Rosario

Resumo

Este artigo investiga se a propriedade estatal da principal empresa do setor petrolífero influencia a relação entre recursos naturais e desenvolvimento financeiro. Utilizando um painel com 90 países entre 1973 e 2017 e estimando modelos dinâmicos pelo sistema-GMM (Arellano e Bond, 1995), analisamos como a abundância de petróleo interage com a presença da empresa petrolífera estatal (EPE) para delinear o perfil do desenvolvimento financeiro. Propomos uma nova explicação para a adoção de controles sobre as taxas de juros, demonstrando que a dependência fiscal das receitas petrolíferas, quando combinada com as EPEs, está sistematicamente relacionada à repressão financeira. Uma análise de mediação revela um canal indireto em que esses controles estimulam o crescimento do crédito em curto prazo, mas enfraquecem a profundidade financeira ao longo do tempo. Essas conclusões se baseiam nas abordagens clássicas de McKinnon e Shaw, bem como no trabalho mais recente de Reinhart, oferecendo um novo mecanismo que legitima as decisões governamentais de repressão financeira.

Como Citar
Pérez Becerra, R. (2026). Impacto da abundância de petróleo e das empresas petrolíferas nacionais na repressão financeira. Revista De Economía Del Rosario, 28(1). https://doi.org/10.12804/revistas.urosario.edu.co/economia/a.15770
Referências

Abiad, A., Detragiache, E., & Tressel, T. (2009). A new database of financial reforms. IMF Staff Papers, 57(2), 281–302. https://doi.org/10.1057/imfsp.2009.23

Ahmadov, A. K. (2013). Oil, democracy, and context: A meta-analysis. Comparative Political Studies, 47(9), 1238–1267. https://doi.org/10.1177/0010414013495358

Arellano, M., & Bond, S. (1991). Some tests of specification for panel data: Monte Carlo evidence and an application to employment equations. The Review of Economic Studies, 58(2), 277–297. https://doi.org/10.2307/2297968

Arellano, M., & Bover, O. (1995). Another look at the instrumental variable estimation of error-components models. Journal of Econometrics, 68(1), 29–51. https://doi.org/10.1016/0304-4076(94)01642-D

Baltagi, B. H., & Baltagi, B. H. (2008). Econometric analysis of panel data. Springer.

Baron, R. M., & Kenny, D. A. (1986). The moderator–mediator variable distinction in social psychological research: Conceptual, strategic, and statistical considerations. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 51(6), 1173–1182. https://doi.org/10.1037/0022-3514.51.6.1173

Beck, T. (2011). Finance and oil: Is there a resource curse in financial development? SSRN Electronic Journal. https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=1769803

Beck, T., & Levine, R. (2005). Legal institutions and financial development. In Handbook of new institutional economics (pp. 251-278). Springer US.

Beck, T., & Poelhekke, S. (2023). Follow the money: Does the financial sector intermediate natural resource windfalls? Journal of International Money and Finance, (130), 102769. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jimonfin.2022.102769

Benigno, G., & Fornaro, L. (2013). The financial resource curse. The Scandinavian Journal of Economics, 116(1), 58–86. https://doi.org/10.1111/sjoe.12047

Berglof, E., & Lehmann, A. (2009). Sustaining Russia’s growth: The role of financial reform. Journal of Comparative Economics, 37(2), 198–206. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jce.2009.01.003

Bhattacharyya, S., & Hodler, R. (2014). Do natural resource revenues hinder financial development? The role of political institutions. World Development, 57, 101–113. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.worlddev.2013.12.003

Blundell, R., & Bond, S. (1998). Initial conditions and moment restrictions in dynamic panel data models. Journal of Econometrics, 87(1), 115–143. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0304-4076(98)00009-8

Bond, S. (2002). Dynamic panel data models: A guide to micro data methods and practice. Portuguese Economic Journal, 1(2), 141–162. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10258-002-0009-9

Bornhorst, F., & Baum, C. (2007). Ipshin: Stata module to perform Im-Pesaran-Shin panel unit root test. EconPapers. https://econpapers.repec.org/software/bocbocode/s456788.htm.

Brunnschweiler, C. N., & Poelhekke, S. (2021). Pushing one’s luck: Petroleum ownership and discoveries. Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, 109, 102506. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jeem.2021.102506

Bun, M., & Kleibergen, F. (2013). Identification and inference in moments based analysis of linear dynamic panel data models. University of Amsterdam-Econometrics Discussion Paper, 07. https://pure.uva.nl/ws/files/1755601/131820_1307_1_.pdf

Cameron, A. (2005). Microeconometrics: Methods and applications. Cambridge University Press.

Cole, D. C., & Shaw, E. S. (1974). Financial deepening in economic development. The Journal of Finance, 29(4), 1345. https://doi.org/10.2307/2978421

De Mendonça, H. F., & Barcelos, V. Í. (2021). Securitization of assets and risk transfer in a large emerging market: Evidence from Brazil. Bulletin of Economic Research, 73(4), 580–605. https://doi.org/10.1111/boer.12267

Dippel, C., Ferrara, A., & Heblich, S. (2020). Causal mediation analysis in instrumental-variables regressions. The Stata Journal: Promoting Communications on Statistics and Stata, 20(3), 613–626. https://doi.org/10.1177/1536867X20953572

Edwards, J. R., & Lambert, L. S. (2007). Methods for integrating moderation and mediation: A general analytical framework using moderated path analysis. Psychological Methods, 12(1), 1–22.

Elhannani, F. E., Boussalem, A. B., & Benbouziane, M. (2016). Financial development

and the oil curse: Evidence from Algeria. Topics in Middle

Eastern and North African Economies, 18(1).

Giovannini, A. (1985). Saving and the real interest rate in LDCs. Journal of Development Economics, 18(2–3), 197–217. https://doi.org/10.1016/0304-3878(85)90054-9

Gylfason, T. (2006). Natural Resources and Economic Growth: From Dependence to Diversification (pp. 201–231). Springer-Verlag.

Gylfason, T., & Zoega, G. (2001). Natural resources and economic growth: The role of investment. SSRN Electronic Journal, 267096. https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=267096

Hausmann, R., & Rigobon, R. (2003). An alternative interpretation of the ‘resource curse’: Theory and policy implications. National Bureau of Economic Research Working Paper, 9424. https://www.nber.org/papers/w9424

Im, K. S., Pesaran, M., & Shin, Y. (2003). Testing for unit roots in heterogeneous panels. Journal of Econometrics, 115(1), 53–74. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0304-4076(03)00092-7

IMF. (2007). Guide on Resource Revenue Transparency. International Monetary Fund. https://www.imf.org/external/np/fad/trans/guide.htm

Jafarov, E., Maino, R., & Pani, M. (2019). Financial repression is knocking at the door, again. International Monetary Fund.

Kose, M. A., Ohnsorge, F. L., Reinhart, C. M., & Rogoff, K. S. (2022). The aftermath of debt surges. Annual Review of Economics, 14(1), 637–663. https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev-economics-051420-015343

Krull, J. L., & MacKinnon, D. P. (2001). Multilevel modeling of individual and group level mediated effects. Multivariate Behavioral Research, 36(2), 249–277. https://doi.org/10.1207/S15327906MBR3602_06

Kurronen, S. (2015). Financial sector in resource-dependent economies. Emerging Markets Review, 23, 208–229. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ememar.2015.04.010

Labra Lillo, R., & Torrecillas, C. (2018). Estimating dynamic panel data. a practical approach to perform long panels. Revista Colombiana de Estadística, 41(1), 31–52. https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.14352/13228

Luong, P. J., & Weinthal, E. (2010). Oil is not a curse: Ownership structure and institutions in Soviet successor states. Cambridge University Press.

Mansour, M., & Nakhle, C. (2016). Fiscal stabilization in oil and gas contracts: Evidence and implications. Oxford Institute for Energy Studies.

McKinnon, R. (1973). The value-added tax and the liberalization of foreign trade in developing economies: A comment. Journal of Economic Literature, 11(2), 520–524. https://www.jstor.org/stable/2721383

Menaldo, V. (2015). The fiscal roots of financial underdevelopment. American Journal of Political Science, 60(2), 456–471. https://doi.org/10.1111/ajps.12240

Mlachila, M., & Ouedraogo, R. (2020). Financial development curse in resource-rich countries: The role of commodity price shocks. The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, 76, 84–96. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.qref.2019.04.011

Montiel, P. J. (2011). Macroeconomics in emerging markets. Cambridge University Press.

Namazi, M., & Salehi, M. (2010). The role of inflation in financial repression: Evidence from Iran. World Applied Sciences Journal, 11(6), 653–661. https://www.idosi.org/wasj/wasj11(6)/3.pdf

Nili, M., & Rastad, M. (2007). Addressing the growth failure of the oil economies: The role of financial development. The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, 46(5), 726–740. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.qref.2006.08.007

Reinhart, C., Kirkegaard, J. F., & Sbrancia, M. B. (2011). Financial repression redux. Finance and Development, 48(1). https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/31641/

Roodman, D. (2009). How to do xtabond2: An introduction to difference and system GMM in Stata. The Stata Journal: Promoting communications on statistics and Stata, 9(1), 86–136. https://doi.org/10.1177/1536867X0900900106

Sahay, M. R., Cihak, M., N’Diaye, M. P., Barajas, M. A., Pena, M. D. A., Bi, R., Gao, M., Kyobe, M. A., Nguyen, L., & Saborowski, C. (2015). Rethinking Financial Deepening: Stability and Growth in Emerging Markets. International Monetary Fund.

Samargandi, N., Fidrmuc, J., & Ghosh, S. (2014). Financial development and economic growth in an oil-rich economy: The case of saudi arabia. Economic Modelling, 43, 267–278. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econmod.2014.07.042

Taylor, M. P., & Sarno, L. (1998). The behavior of real exchange rates during the post-bretton woods period. Journal of International Economics, 46(2), 281–312. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0022-1996(97)00054-8

Windmeijer, F. (2005). A finite sample correction for the variance of linear efficient two-step gmm estimators. Journal of Econometrics, 126(1), 25–51. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jeconom.2004.02.005

Wolf, C. O. H. (2009). The petroleum sector value chain. SSRN Electronic Journal.

Estatísticas de consulta

Downloads

Não há dados estatísticos.
Métricas de publicação

0




 

Creative Commons License

Este trabalho está licenciado sob uma licença Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License.

Los autores conservan los derechos de autor y garantizan a la revista el derecho de ser la primera publicación del trabajo al igual que licenciado bajo una Creative Commons Attribution License que permite a otros compartir el trabajo con un reconocimiento de la autoría del trabajo y la publicación inicial en esta revista.