Crime e fatores econômicos em Medellín
um estudo de predição com aprendizado de máquina

DOI:  https://doi.org/10.12804/revistas.urosario.edu.co/economia/a.14992

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Publicado: nov 11, 2025
Edição: v. 27 n. 2 (2024):
Seção Artigos


Palavras-chave: aprendizado de máquina padrões de crime modelos de classificação predição de crimes políticas públicas

Conteúdo do artigo principal

Autores

  Maria Camila Ardila
Magíster en Economía de la Universidad del Rosario

Resumo

A atividade criminosa impacta negativamente a qualidade de vida e o progresso econômico. Com os avanços nos métodos econométricos e no uso de aprendizado de máquina para detectar padrões, essas técnicas agora estão sendo aplicadas em vários campos, incluindo a prevenção do crime. Este estudo prevê a probabilidade de diferentes tipos de crimes em Medellín, Colômbia, com base em dados históricos e sociodemográficos. Foram utilizados modelos de mínimos quadrados ordinários, florestas aleatórias e extreme gradient boosting, obtendo elevado grau de precisão. Os principais preditores incluem a proporção de homens, o desemprego, a filiação ao Sisbén [sistema colombiano de classificação socioeconômica para acesso a benefícios sociais], a pobreza multidimensional e o pertencimento às faixas de menor renda.

Como Citar
Ardila, M. C. (2025). Crime e fatores econômicos em Medellín: um estudo de predição com aprendizado de máquina. Revista De Economía Del Rosario, 27(2). https://doi.org/10.12804/revistas.urosario.edu.co/economia/a.14992
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