Impact of Holy Week on the Industrial Production Indexes by Sector in Colombia

DOI:  https://doi.org/10.12804/revistas.urosario.edu.co/economia/a.5241

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Issue: Vol. 19 No. 1 (2016): enero-junio
Section Articles


Keywords: calendar effects time series decomposition seasonality.

Main Article Content

Authors

Davinson Stev Abril
Luis Fernando Melo
Daniel Parra

Abstract

Calendar effects are defined as irregular seasonal patterns that impact the behavior of economic series. We seasonally adjusted the industrial production sector indices in Colombia correcting for the calendar effects such as Easter and holidays. The methodologies Tramo-Seats proposed by Gómez and Maravall (1994, 1996) and Tbats proposed by De-Livera et al. (2011) were used for the sample period January 1990 and September 2014. The most production industries are affected negatively for the calendar effects, excluding oil refining, chemical substances and glass where the impact is not significant. The regression coefficient related with easter week has a magnitude greater than the holidays and the results show a high heterogeneity by industrial activity. Finally, the most significant impact on industrial production sectors occurs when the Easter irregularly changes from year to year among march and april (vice versa). The estimated impacts on industrial production growth through Tbats and Tramo-Seats methodologies are 4,924 % and 7,752 %, respectively.

How to Cite
Abril, D. S., Melo, L. F., & Parra, D. (2016). Impact of Holy Week on the Industrial Production Indexes by Sector in Colombia. Revista Economía Del Rosario, 19(1), 59–84. https://doi.org/10.12804/revistas.urosario.edu.co/economia/a.5241
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