A redução do investimento chinês na nova rota da seda: entre a contenção de gastos e a preparação para uma crise financeira internacional

DOI:  https://doi.org/10.12804/revistas.urosario.edu.co/desafios/a.7705

Barra lateral de artigos

PDF HTML (Español (España)) Lector Inteligente (Español (España)) ePub (Español (España))

Publicado: ene 1, 2020
Edição: v. 32 n. 1 (2020): (Janeiro-Junho) China como proponente de uma nova agenda global? Desafios, tensões e oportunidades...
Seção Dossiê temático


Conteúdo do artigo principal

Autores

  Samuel Spellmann
Universidade Estadual da Paraíba
  Alexandre César Cunha Leite
Universidade Estadual da Paraíba (UEPB)Pontificia Universidade Católica de Minas GeraisUniversidade Federal da Paraíba

Resumo

O artigo estabelece explicações para a mudança no padrão de investimentos não-financeiros apresentada no fluxo de Investimento Externo Direto (ied) chinês relativo à Nova Rota da Seda (nrs). Primeiramente, a redução de investimentos na nrs é verificada através da análise do Statistical Bulletin of China’s Outward Foreign Direct Investment entre os anos de 2013 e 2016. Tais anos compõem o primeiro quadriênio desde o anúncio oficial da nrs. Na sequência, buscando explicar a redução do fluxo de ied-NF para a nrs, analisaram-se duas hipóteses. Primeiro, buscou-se retratar as atuais medidas de controle de gasto público pela administração chinesa, que enfrenta o crescimento da dívida pública do país, capacidade excedente, e ao mesmo tempo discutir as similaridades entre a economia chinesa e a crise japonesa do início dos anos 1990. Na segunda hipótese, contemplamos a possibilidade dos preparativos feitos pelas autoridades chinesas serem contramedidas para a instabilidade de mercados globais. A confluência destes fatores ajuda a explicar a redução do fluxo de IED-NF para a nrs, que contrasta com a tendência contemporânea mundial relativa ao investimento chinês no mesmo período.

Biografia do Autor

Samuel Spellmann, Universidade Estadual da Paraíba

E-mail: samuelspellmann@outlook.com

Alexandre César Cunha Leite, Universidade Estadual da Paraíba (UEPB)Pontificia Universidade Católica de Minas GeraisUniversidade Federal da Paraíba

E-mail: alexcleite@gmail.com

Como Citar
Spellmann, S., & Cunha Leite, A. C. (2020). A redução do investimento chinês na nova rota da seda: entre a contenção de gastos e a preparação para uma crise financeira internacional. Desafíos, 32(1), 1–32. https://doi.org/10.12804/revistas.urosario.edu.co/desafios/a.7705
Referências

Arase, D. (2015). China’s two silk roads: implications for southeast Asia. iseas Perspective, (2). Recuperado de https://www.iseas.edu.sg/images/ pdf/iseas_perspective_2015_35.pdf

Beams, N. (2017, 24 de outubro). China faces growing debt problems, says central bank governor.

Global Research. Recuperado de https://www. globalresearch.ca/china-faces-growing-debt-problems-says-central-bank-governor/5614833?print=1

Bradsher, K. (2018, 24 de janeiro). China will tame its growing debt load in 3 years, top Xi adviser says. The New York Times. Recuperado de https:// www.nytimes.com/2018/01/24/business/china-debt-liu-he.html

Bradsher, K., & Stevenson, A. (2018, 22 de fevereiro). Beijing takes over angang, insurer that owns waldorf astoria. The New York Times. Recuperado de https://www.nytimes.com/2018/02/22/business/china-anbang-waldorf-astoria.html

Callahan, W. A. (2016). China’s belt and road initiative and the new Eurasian order. Norwegian Institute of International Affairs, Policy Brief, 22/2016. Recuperado de https://nupi.brage.unit.no/nupi-xmlui/bitstream/ handle/11250/2401876/NUPI_Policy_Brief_22-16_William_Callahan.pdf ?sequence=3&isAllowed=yChina

Cheng, E., & Ding, X. (2017, 1º de janeiro). A theory of China’s miracle. Mon¬thly Review. Recuperado de https://monthlyreview.org/2017/01/01/a¬-theory-of-chinas-miracle/

Chung, C. P., & Voon, T. J. (2017). China’s maritime silk road initiative. Asian Survey, 57(3), 416-449.

Dollar, D. (2017, 8 de maio). Yes, China is investing globally - but not so much in its belt and road initiative. Reuters. Recuperado de https:// johnib.wordpress.com/2017/05/09/tightened-belt-china-skimps-on¬-its-grand-trade-plan/

Embassy of Switzerland in the people’s Republic of China (Embassy of Switzerland). (2017). China 2017 final economic report. Beijing. Recuperado de http://cn.swisscham.org/sites/default/files/Economic%20 Report%202017%20Swiss%20Embassy.pdf

European Union Chamber of Commerce in China (European Chamber). (2016). Berger, R. Overcapacity in China. Recuperado de http://www. europeanchamber.com.cn/en/publications-overcapacity-in-china

Ferdinand, P. (2016). Westward Ho - the China dream and ‘One Belt, One Road’: Chinese Foreign Policy under Xi Jinping. International Affairs, 92(4), 941-957.

Foster, J. B., & McChesney, R. W. (2012, 1º de fevereiro). The global stagnation and China. Monthly Review. Recuperado de https://monthlyreview. org/2012/02/01/the-global-stagnation-and-china/#

Fraga, J. S., & Strachman, E. (2013). Crise financeira: o caso japonês. Nova Econ., 23(3), 521-554. Doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.1590/S0103- 63512013000300002

Ghiselli, A. (2017, 7 de junho). The domestic drive behind China’s belt and road initiative. Asia Dialogue. Recuperado de http://theasiadialogue. com/2017/06/07/the-domestic-drive-behind-chinas-belt-and-road-initiative/

Jabbour, E., & De Paula, L. F. (2018). A China e a “socialização do investimento”: uma abordagem Keynes-Gerschenkron-Rangel-Hirschman. Revista de Economia Contemporânea, 22(1), 1-23.

Kang, M. (2018). The confidence trap: Japan’s past bubble and China’s recent bubble. New Political Economy, 23(1), 1-26.

Leite, A. C. C. (2018). O atual momento do desenvolvimento chinês: planejamento regional, investimento e comércio internacional. In Vadell, J. (Ed.), A expansão econômica e geopolítica da China (pp. 259-283). Belo Horizonte: Editora da pucminas.

Magalhães, D. T. D. (2018). The globalizer dragon: how is China changing economic globalization? Third World Quarterly, 39, 1727-1749.

Mészáros, I. (2011). Para além do capital: rumo a uma teoria da transição. São Paulo: Boitempo.

Ministry of Commerce of the People’s Republic of China (mofcom). (2013). Statistical Bulletin of China’s Outward Foreign Direct Investment. Recuperado de http://fec.mofcom.gov.cn/article/tjsj/ tjgb/201511/20151101190468.shtml

Ministry of Commerce of the People’s Republic of China (mofcom). (2014). Statistical Bulletin of China’s Outward Foreign Direct Investment. Recuperado de http://fec.mofcom.gov.cn/article/tjsj/ tjgb/201512/20151201223579.shtml

Ministry of Commerce of the People’s Republic of China (mofcom). (2015). Statistical Bulletin of China’s Outward Foreign Direct Investment. Recuperado de http://fec.mofcom.gov.cn/article/tjsj/ tjgb/201609/20160901399223.shtml

Ministry of Commerce of the People’s Republic of China (mofcom). (2016). Statistical Bulletin of China’s Outward Foreign Direct Investment. Recuperado de http://fec.mofcom.gov.cn/article/tjsj/ tjgb/201709/20170902653690.shtml

Ministry of Commerce of the People’s Republic of China (mofcom). (2017, 19 de janeiro). Investment Cooperation among Countries along the Belt and Road Initiative. Recuperado de http://www.mofcom.gov.cn/article/tongjiziliao/dgzz /201701/20170102504429.shtml

Nogueira, I. (2018). Estado e capital em uma China com classes. Revista de Economia Contemporânea, 22(1), 1-23.

Oliver, C., & Pooler, M. (2015, 9 de novembro). eu states call for action against China steel dumping. Financial Times. Recuperado de https:// www.ft.com/content/37f15a42-872b-11e5-90de-f44762bf9896

Ren, X. (2016). China as an institution-builder: the case of the aiib. The Pacific Review, 29(3), 435-442.

Reuters. (2018a, 24 de julho). imf says dollar over-valued, Chinese yuan in line with fundamentals. The New York Times. Recuperado de https:// www.nytimes.com/reuters/2018/07/24/business/24reuters-imf-currencies.html

Reuters. (2018b, 1º de junho). China defends free trade ahead of ross visit. Business Times. Recuperado de https://www.businesstimes.com.sg/ government-economy/china-defends-free-trade-ahead-of-ross-visit

Reuters. (2018c, 4 de julho). Chinese engineering firm told to suspend US$20 billion east coast railway link in Malaysia. South China Morning Post. Recuperado de https://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy-defence/article/2153801/chinese-engineering-firm-told-suspend-us20-billion-east

Smith, J. (2016). Imperialism in the twenty-first century: globalization, super-exploitation and capitalism’s final crisis. New York: Montly Review Press.

Sun, Y., & Grimes, S. (2018). China and global value chains. Globalization and the information and communications technology sector. New York: Routledge.

Suzuki, Y. (2014). Making sense of China’s economic slowdown. Journal of Economics and Political Economy, 1(2), 195-201.

Swanson, A. (2018, 5 de julho). Trump’s trade war with China is officially underway. The New York Times. Recuperado de https://www.nytimes. com/2018/07/05/business/china-us-trade-war-trump-tariffs.html

Sweet, R. (2017, 6 de dezembro). Pakistan “stunned” as China pulls cpecfunding after corruption reports. Global Construction Review. Recuperado de http://www.globalconstructionreview.com/news/pakistan-stunned-china-pulls-cpec-funding-after-co/1/

Torres Filho, E. T. (1997, janeiro-março). A crise da economia japonesa nos anos 90: impactos da bolha especulativa. Revista de Economia Política, 17(1-65), 5-19. Recuperado de http://www.rep.org.br/PDF/65-1.pdf

Weiss, M. A. (2017). Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (aiib). Congressional Research Service. Recuperado de https://fas.org/sgp/crs/row/ R44754.pdf

Wildau, G. (2014, 15 de agosto). China banks fortify balance sheets against loan risks. Financial Times. Recuperado de https://www.ft.com/ content/4a0847e2-244c-11e4-ae78-00144feabdc0

Wildau, G. (2017, 23 de novembro). China broadens campaign against overcapacity. Financial Times. Recuperado de https://www.ft.com/ content/cd2fe8f0-cf70-11e7-b781-794ce08b24dc

Wildau, G., & Lockett, H. (2017, 10 de novembro). China pledges to open finance sector to more foreign ownership. Financial Times. Recuperado de https://www.ft.com/content/d4a85422-c5d5-11e7-b2bb-322b2cb39656

Wildau, G., & Ma, N. (2017, 10 de maio). China new “silk road” investment falls in 2016. Financial Times. Recuperado de https://www.ft.com/ content/156da902-354f-11e7-bce4-9023f8c0fd2e

World Bank. (n. d. a). gdp per capita (current US$), China, 2002-2017. World Bank national accounts data, and oecd national accounts data files. Recuperado de https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.PCAP. CD?locations=CN&start=2002

World Bank. (n. d. b). Households and npishs final consumption expenditure (% of gdp), China, 2002-2017. World Bank national accounts data, and oecd national accounts data files. Recuperado de https://data.worl¬dbank.org/indicator/NE.CON.PRVT.ZS?locations=CN&start=2002

World Bank. (n. d. c). Gross capital formation (% of gdp), China, 2002-2017. World Bank national accounts data, and oecd national accounts data files. Recuperado de https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NE.GDI. TOTL.ZS?locations=CN&start=2002

World Bank. (n. d. d). Tax revenue (current lcu), China, 2005-2015. World Bank national accounts data, and oecd national accounts data files. Recuperado de https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/GC.TAX. TOTL.CN?locations=CN

Xie, Y., & Zhou, X. (2018, 19 de março). Vice-premier Liu He set to lead China’s new economic team as government line-up finalized. South China Morning Post. Recuperado de https://www.scmp.com/news/ china/economy/article/2137913/vice-premier-liu-he-set-lead-chinas-new-economic-team-government

Yao, K., & Glenn, E. (2018, 9 de abril). China’s Xi renews vow to open economy, cut tariffs as U.S. trade row deepens. Reuters. Recuperado de https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-trade-china/chinas-xi-renews-vow-to-open-economy-cut-tariffs-as-u-s-trade-row-deepens-i-dUSKBN1HH084

Zhang, N. (2017, 18 de outubro). China’s non-financial sector outbound investment declines. China Daily. Recuperado de http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/business/2017-10/18/content_33393688.htm

Zhong, R., & Mozur, P. (2018, 2 de maio). Tech giants feel the squeeze as Xi Jinping tightens his grip. The New York Times. Recuperado de https://www.nytimes.com/2018/05/02/technology/china-xi-jinping-technology-innovation.html

Estatísticas de consulta

Downloads

Não há dados estatísticos.
Métricas de publicação

752 77




 

Creative Commons License

Este trabalho está licenciado sob uma licença Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International License.

Los derechos de autor serán de la Universidad del Rosario. Cuando el autor quiera publicar el manuscrito en otra publicación, deberá pedir a la Editorial de la Universidad del Rosario los permisos correspondientes. De igual forma, cuando la Revista esté interesada en publicar artículos que ya han sido publicados en otras revistas, procederá a solicitar los permisos correspondientes en la editorial donde se realizó la primera publicación. Bajo una Creative Commons Attribution License, los autores pueden compartir el trabajo con un reconocimiento de la autoría del trabajo y la publicación inicial en esta revista.