La reducción de inversiones chinas en la Nueva Ruta de la Seda: entre gastos de continuación y preparación para la crisis financiera internacional
Barra lateral del artículo
Contenido principal del artículo
Este artículo busca establecer explicaciones para el cambio en el patrón de inversiones presentado en el flujo de inversión directa no financiera (IED) de China en la Nueva Ruta de la Seda (NRS). En primer lugar, la reducción de las inversiones en nrs se verifica a través del análisis del Statistical Bulletin of China’s Outward Foreign Direct Investment entre los años 2013 y 2016. Después, al tratar de explicar la reducción del flujo de ied no financiera de China a nrs, este artículo analiza dos hipótesis. Primero, retrata las medidas actuales de control del gasto público de China, que abordan el crecimiento del exceso de capacidad del país, mientras discute las similitudes entre la economía china y la crisis japonesa de principios de la década de 1990. Posteriormente, contempla la posibilidad de que los preparativos realizados por las autoridades chinas se contrarresten por la inestabilidad anticipada de los mercados mundiales. La confluencia de estos factores ayuda a explicar la reducción del flujo no financiero de ied a nrs, que contrasta con la tendencia contemporánea hacia la inversión china en el mundo durante el mismo período.
Descargas
Samuel Spellmann, Universidade Estadual da Paraíba (UEPB)
E-mail: samuelspellmann@outlook.com
Alexandre César Cunha Leite, Universidade Estadual da Paraíba (UEPB) Pontificia Universidade Católica de Minas Gerais
E-mail: alexcleite@gmail.com
Arase, D. (2015). China’s two silk roads: implications for southeast Asia. iseas Perspective, (2). Recuperado de https://www.iseas.edu.sg/images/ pdf/iseas_perspective_2015_35.pdf
Beams, N. (2017, 24 de outubro). China faces growing debt problems, says central bank governor.
Global Research. Recuperado de https://www. globalresearch.ca/china-faces-growing-debt-problems-says-central-bank-governor/5614833?print=1
Bradsher, K. (2018, 24 de janeiro). China will tame its growing debt load in 3 years, top Xi adviser says. The New York Times. Recuperado de https:// www.nytimes.com/2018/01/24/business/china-debt-liu-he.html
Bradsher, K., & Stevenson, A. (2018, 22 de fevereiro). Beijing takes over angang, insurer that owns waldorf astoria. The New York Times. Recuperado de https://www.nytimes.com/2018/02/22/business/china-anbang-waldorf-astoria.html
Callahan, W. A. (2016). China’s belt and road initiative and the new Eurasian order. Norwegian Institute of International Affairs, Policy Brief, 22/2016. Recuperado de https://nupi.brage.unit.no/nupi-xmlui/bitstream/ handle/11250/2401876/NUPI_Policy_Brief_22-16_William_Callahan.pdf ?sequence=3&isAllowed=yChina
Cheng, E., & Ding, X. (2017, 1º de janeiro). A theory of China’s miracle. Mon¬thly Review. Recuperado de https://monthlyreview.org/2017/01/01/a¬-theory-of-chinas-miracle/
Chung, C. P., & Voon, T. J. (2017). China’s maritime silk road initiative. Asian Survey, 57(3), 416-449.
Dollar, D. (2017, 8 de maio). Yes, China is investing globally - but not so much in its belt and road initiative. Reuters. Recuperado de https:// johnib.wordpress.com/2017/05/09/tightened-belt-china-skimps-on¬-its-grand-trade-plan/
Embassy of Switzerland in the people’s Republic of China (Embassy of Switzerland). (2017). China 2017 final economic report. Beijing. Recuperado de http://cn.swisscham.org/sites/default/files/Economic%20 Report%202017%20Swiss%20Embassy.pdf
European Union Chamber of Commerce in China (European Chamber). (2016). Berger, R. Overcapacity in China. Recuperado de http://www. europeanchamber.com.cn/en/publications-overcapacity-in-china
Ferdinand, P. (2016). Westward Ho - the China dream and ‘One Belt, One Road’: Chinese Foreign Policy under Xi Jinping. International Affairs, 92(4), 941-957.
Foster, J. B., & McChesney, R. W. (2012, 1º de fevereiro). The global stagnation and China. Monthly Review. Recuperado de https://monthlyreview. org/2012/02/01/the-global-stagnation-and-china/#
Fraga, J. S., & Strachman, E. (2013). Crise financeira: o caso japonês. Nova Econ., 23(3), 521-554. Doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.1590/S0103- 63512013000300002
Ghiselli, A. (2017, 7 de junho). The domestic drive behind China’s belt and road initiative. Asia Dialogue. Recuperado de http://theasiadialogue. com/2017/06/07/the-domestic-drive-behind-chinas-belt-and-road-initiative/
Jabbour, E., & De Paula, L. F. (2018). A China e a “socialização do investimento”: uma abordagem Keynes-Gerschenkron-Rangel-Hirschman. Revista de Economia Contemporânea, 22(1), 1-23.
Kang, M. (2018). The confidence trap: Japan’s past bubble and China’s recent bubble. New Political Economy, 23(1), 1-26.
Leite, A. C. C. (2018). O atual momento do desenvolvimento chinês: planejamento regional, investimento e comércio internacional. In Vadell, J. (Ed.), A expansão econômica e geopolítica da China (pp. 259-283). Belo Horizonte: Editora da pucminas.
Magalhães, D. T. D. (2018). The globalizer dragon: how is China changing economic globalization? Third World Quarterly, 39, 1727-1749.
Mészáros, I. (2011). Para além do capital: rumo a uma teoria da transição. São Paulo: Boitempo.
Ministry of Commerce of the People’s Republic of China (mofcom). (2013). Statistical Bulletin of China’s Outward Foreign Direct Investment. Recuperado de http://fec.mofcom.gov.cn/article/tjsj/ tjgb/201511/20151101190468.shtml
Ministry of Commerce of the People’s Republic of China (mofcom). (2014). Statistical Bulletin of China’s Outward Foreign Direct Investment. Recuperado de http://fec.mofcom.gov.cn/article/tjsj/ tjgb/201512/20151201223579.shtml
Ministry of Commerce of the People’s Republic of China (mofcom). (2015). Statistical Bulletin of China’s Outward Foreign Direct Investment. Recuperado de http://fec.mofcom.gov.cn/article/tjsj/ tjgb/201609/20160901399223.shtml
Ministry of Commerce of the People’s Republic of China (mofcom). (2016). Statistical Bulletin of China’s Outward Foreign Direct Investment. Recuperado de http://fec.mofcom.gov.cn/article/tjsj/ tjgb/201709/20170902653690.shtml
Ministry of Commerce of the People’s Republic of China (mofcom). (2017, 19 de janeiro). Investment Cooperation among Countries along the Belt and Road Initiative. Recuperado de http://www.mofcom.gov.cn/article/tongjiziliao/dgzz /201701/20170102504429.shtml
Nogueira, I. (2018). Estado e capital em uma China com classes. Revista de Economia Contemporânea, 22(1), 1-23.
Oliver, C., & Pooler, M. (2015, 9 de novembro). eu states call for action against China steel dumping. Financial Times. Recuperado de https:// www.ft.com/content/37f15a42-872b-11e5-90de-f44762bf9896
Ren, X. (2016). China as an institution-builder: the case of the aiib. The Pacific Review, 29(3), 435-442.
Reuters. (2018a, 24 de julho). imf says dollar over-valued, Chinese yuan in line with fundamentals. The New York Times. Recuperado de https:// www.nytimes.com/reuters/2018/07/24/business/24reuters-imf-currencies.html
Reuters. (2018b, 1º de junho). China defends free trade ahead of ross visit. Business Times. Recuperado de https://www.businesstimes.com.sg/ government-economy/china-defends-free-trade-ahead-of-ross-visit
Reuters. (2018c, 4 de julho). Chinese engineering firm told to suspend US$20 billion east coast railway link in Malaysia. South China Morning Post. Recuperado de https://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy-defence/article/2153801/chinese-engineering-firm-told-suspend-us20-billion-east
Smith, J. (2016). Imperialism in the twenty-first century: globalization, super-exploitation and capitalism’s final crisis. New York: Montly Review Press.
Sun, Y., & Grimes, S. (2018). China and global value chains. Globalization and the information and communications technology sector. New York: Routledge.
Suzuki, Y. (2014). Making sense of China’s economic slowdown. Journal of Economics and Political Economy, 1(2), 195-201.
Swanson, A. (2018, 5 de julho). Trump’s trade war with China is officially underway. The New York Times. Recuperado de https://www.nytimes. com/2018/07/05/business/china-us-trade-war-trump-tariffs.html
Sweet, R. (2017, 6 de dezembro). Pakistan “stunned” as China pulls cpecfunding after corruption reports. Global Construction Review. Recuperado de http://www.globalconstructionreview.com/news/pakistan-stunned-china-pulls-cpec-funding-after-co/1/
Torres Filho, E. T. (1997, janeiro-março). A crise da economia japonesa nos anos 90: impactos da bolha especulativa. Revista de Economia Política, 17(1-65), 5-19. Recuperado de http://www.rep.org.br/PDF/65-1.pdf
Weiss, M. A. (2017). Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (aiib). Congressional Research Service. Recuperado de https://fas.org/sgp/crs/row/ R44754.pdf
Wildau, G. (2014, 15 de agosto). China banks fortify balance sheets against loan risks. Financial Times. Recuperado de https://www.ft.com/ content/4a0847e2-244c-11e4-ae78-00144feabdc0
Wildau, G. (2017, 23 de novembro). China broadens campaign against overcapacity. Financial Times. Recuperado de https://www.ft.com/ content/cd2fe8f0-cf70-11e7-b781-794ce08b24dc
Wildau, G., & Lockett, H. (2017, 10 de novembro). China pledges to open finance sector to more foreign ownership. Financial Times. Recuperado de https://www.ft.com/content/d4a85422-c5d5-11e7-b2bb-322b2cb39656
Wildau, G., & Ma, N. (2017, 10 de maio). China new “silk road” investment falls in 2016. Financial Times. Recuperado de https://www.ft.com/ content/156da902-354f-11e7-bce4-9023f8c0fd2e
World Bank. (n. d. a). gdp per capita (current US$), China, 2002-2017. World Bank national accounts data, and oecd national accounts data files. Recuperado de https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.PCAP. CD?locations=CN&start=2002
World Bank. (n. d. b). Households and npishs final consumption expenditure (% of gdp), China, 2002-2017. World Bank national accounts data, and oecd national accounts data files. Recuperado de https://data.worl¬dbank.org/indicator/NE.CON.PRVT.ZS?locations=CN&start=2002
World Bank. (n. d. c). Gross capital formation (% of gdp), China, 2002-2017. World Bank national accounts data, and oecd national accounts data files. Recuperado de https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NE.GDI. TOTL.ZS?locations=CN&start=2002
World Bank. (n. d. d). Tax revenue (current lcu), China, 2005-2015. World Bank national accounts data, and oecd national accounts data files. Recuperado de https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/GC.TAX. TOTL.CN?locations=CN
Xie, Y., & Zhou, X. (2018, 19 de março). Vice-premier Liu He set to lead China’s new economic team as government line-up finalized. South China Morning Post. Recuperado de https://www.scmp.com/news/ china/economy/article/2137913/vice-premier-liu-he-set-lead-chinas-new-economic-team-government
Yao, K., & Glenn, E. (2018, 9 de abril). China’s Xi renews vow to open economy, cut tariffs as U.S. trade row deepens. Reuters. Recuperado de https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-trade-china/chinas-xi-renews-vow-to-open-economy-cut-tariffs-as-u-s-trade-row-deepens-i-dUSKBN1HH084
Zhang, N. (2017, 18 de outubro). China’s non-financial sector outbound investment declines. China Daily. Recuperado de http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/business/2017-10/18/content_33393688.htm
Zhong, R., & Mozur, P. (2018, 2 de maio). Tech giants feel the squeeze as Xi Jinping tightens his grip. The New York Times. Recuperado de https://www.nytimes.com/2018/05/02/technology/china-xi-jinping-technology-innovation.html
Detalles del artículo
Esta obra está bajo una licencia internacional Creative Commons Atribución-NoComercial-SinDerivadas 4.0.
Los derechos de autor serán de la Universidad del Rosario. Cuando el autor quiera publicar el manuscrito en otra publicación, deberá pedir a la Editorial de la Universidad del Rosario los permisos correspondientes. De igual forma, cuando la Revista esté interesada en publicar artículos que ya han sido publicados en otras revistas, procederá a solicitar los permisos correspondientes en la editorial donde se realizó la primera publicación. Bajo una Creative Commons Attribution License, los autores pueden compartir el trabajo con un reconocimiento de la autoría del trabajo y la publicación inicial en esta revista.